How to use it
- Pick a Draw from the list, or choose Custom number of outs and type the Outs you count.
- Choose the Street: Flop if two cards are still to come, Turn if one is.
- Read Chance of completing by the river and compare it with the Outs rule estimate.
- Scroll the Five-card hands table to see how often each hand turns up, from royal flush down to high card.
How the five-card hands are counted
A five-card hand is any five cards from 52, with no order. There are C(52, 5) = 2,598,960 of them. Each kind of hand is counted by its ranks and suits. A full house is a rank of three (13 choices, with C(4, 3) = 4 ways to take three suits) and a pair of another rank (12 choices, with C(4, 2) = 6 ways), so 13 × 4 × 12 × 6 = 3,744 hands.
- The counts are exact whole numbers, and the counts of all ten hands add up to C(52, 5).
- A hand is named by its best combination: a flush is not a straight flush, and a straight is not a flush.
- The last column adds the hand and every better hand above it.
How the draw chance is worked out
Before the river you cannot see the cards still to come. The chance that at least one out appears is 1 minus the chance that none does, with the cards drawn one after another and not replaced. On the flop 47 cards are unseen and two come; on the turn 46 are unseen and one comes.
Chance = 1 − C(unseen − outs, cards to come) ÷ C(unseen, cards to come)- The outs rule (four times the outs on the flop, two times on the turn) is a quick estimate. It runs high as the outs grow, so the page caps it at 100%.
- Count only the cards that complete your hand. A card that helps an opponent more is not one of your outs.
Worked example: a flush draw on the flop
You hold two hearts and the flop shows two more hearts and one other card. Nine hearts are left among the 47 unseen cards, so there are nine outs. Two cards come before the river. The ways to miss both are C(38, 2) = 703, from the 38 non-hearts. The ways to draw any two of the 47 are C(47, 2) = 1,081. The chance of a hit is 1 − 703 ÷ 1,081 = 0.3497, or 34.97%, close to the outs rule's 36%.
| Step | Result |
|---|---|
| Unseen cards | 47 |
| Outs (hearts left) | 9 |
| Ways to miss | 703 |
| Ways to draw two cards | 1,081 |
| Chance of a hit | 34.97% |
Frequently asked questions
Why does the calculator use only the cards I can see?
Only your cards and the board are known. The calculator treats every other card as equally likely, which is the chance you face before any hand is shown.
What is the difference between the flop and the turn?
On the flop two cards are still to come before the river; on the turn one is. With two cards there are more chances, so a draw is about 1.8 times as likely on the flop as on the turn.
How many outs does each draw have?
A flush draw has nine outs: the thirteen cards of the suit less the four of it already seen. An open-ended straight draw has eight outs, and an inside straight draw has four.
Are these the chances of winning a poker pot?
No. They show how often a hand or a draw completes, using only the known cards. Winning also depends on the other players' hands and on betting, which this calculator does not model.
Why do the hand chances differ from Texas hold'em hands?
Texas hold'em players choose the best five cards from seven, so their hands are more common. The table here counts plain five-card hands, as in five-card draw.
Sources
- Wikipedia: Poker probability (five-card hand frequencies)
- Wikipedia: Texas hold 'em (counting outs and the two and four times rule)
Figures and text last checked on Tuesday, November 10, 2026.